January 2026 | Released February 13, 2026


+2.39 percent
Consumer Price Index inflation
Jan 2025 to Jan 2026
+0.17 percent
Consumer Price Index inflation
Dec 2025 to Jan 2026
+0.53 percent
Change in real average weekly earnings
Dec 2025 to Jan 2026


Consumer Price Index


From December 2025 to January 2026:

  • Headline CPI-U inflation was 0.17 percent.
    • Food price inflation was 0.19 percent.
    • Energy price inflation was -1.47 percent.
  • Core CPI-U inflation was 0.30 percent.

From January 2025 to January 2026:

  • Headline CPI-U inflation was 2.39 percent.
    • Food price inflation was 2.88 percent.
    • Energy price inflation was -0.14 percent.
  • Core CPI-U inflation was 2.50 percent.

Note: Core CPI-U excludes food and energy.





Table 1. Consumer Price Index inflation

Jan 2026 Dec 2025 Chg. from Dec 2025 Jan 2025 Chg. from Jan 2025
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index 0.17% 0.30% -0.13pp 0.43% -0.26pp
Core Consumer Price Index 0.30% 0.23% 0.07pp 0.43% -0.13pp
Food Consumer Price Index 0.19% 0.66% -0.47pp 0.29% -0.10pp
Energy Consumer Price Index -1.47% 0.34% -1.81pp 0.87% -2.34pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index 2.39% 2.68% -0.29pp 3.00% -0.61pp
Core Consumer Price Index 2.50% 2.64% -0.14pp 3.26% -0.76pp
Food Consumer Price Index 2.88% 3.07% -0.19pp 2.50% 0.38pp
Energy Consumer Price Index -0.14% 2.30% -2.44pp 0.97% -1.11pp


Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve forecast

Cleveland Fed forecast Actual Forecast error
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index 0.13% 0.17% -0.04pp
Core Consumer Price Index 0.22% 0.30% -0.08pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index 2.36% 2.39% -0.02pp
Core Consumer Price Index 2.45% 2.50% -0.05pp


Real earnings


From December 2025 to January 2026:

For all employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

  • Real average weekly earnings increased by 0.53 percent.
  • Real average hourly earnings increased by 0.26 percent.

For production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

  • Real average weekly earnings increased by 0.58 percent.
  • Real average hourly earnings increased by 0.30 percent.

Note: “Real” measures are those adjusted for inflation.

Note: Weekly earnings are a better estimate of income than hourly earnings because they take into account the amount of hours worked.


Table 3. Change in real earnings

Jan 2026 Dec 2025 Chg. from Dec 2025 Jan 2025 Chg. from Jan 2025
Month-over-month change
All employees
Real weekly earnings 0.53% -0.54% 1.07pp -0.59% 1.12pp
Real hourly earnings 0.26% -0.26% 0.52pp 0.00% 0.26pp
Production and non-supervisory
Real weekly earnings 0.58% -0.40% 0.98pp -0.34% 0.92pp
Real hourly earnings 0.30% -0.10% 0.40pp 0.00% 0.30pp
Year-over-year change
All employees
Real weekly earnings 1.88% 0.75% 1.13pp 0.66% 1.22pp
Real hourly earnings 1.25% 0.98% 0.27pp 0.99% 0.26pp
Production and non-supervisory
Real weekly earnings 2.16% 1.23% 0.93pp 0.99% 1.17pp
Real hourly earnings 1.52% 1.22% 0.30pp 1.03% 0.49pp


Upcoming releases


Date Time Release Data source
Feb 26 08:30 AM Monthly Expenditures Update, January 2026 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Feb 26 08:30 AM Monthly GDP Update, Q4 2025 Second Estimate Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mar 05 08:30 AM Monthly Trade Update, January 2026 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mar 06 08:30 AM Monthly Employment Update, February 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Mar 11 08:30 AM Monthly Inflation Update, February 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics


Notes


Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.

Due to the lapse in appropriations, the BLS did not publish data for October 2025. As a result, the “month-over-month change” values for November 2025 show the change from September 2025 to November 2025.