May 2025 | Released June 11, 2025

+2.35 percent
Consumer Price Index inflation
May 2024 to May 2025

+0.08 percent
Consumer Price Index inflation
Apr 2025 to May 2025

+0.33 percent
Change in real average weekly earnings
Apr 2025 to May 2025

Consumer Price Index

From April 2025 to May 2025:

• Headline CPI-U inflation was 0.08 percent.
  • Food price inflation was 0.29 percent.
  • Energy price inflation was -0.98 percent.
• Core CPI-U inflation was 0.13 percent.

From May 2024 to May 2025:

• Headline CPI-U inflation was 2.35 percent.
  • Food price inflation was 2.88 percent.
  • Energy price inflation was -3.46 percent.
• Core CPI-U inflation was 2.79 percent.

Note: Core CPI-U excludes food and energy.

Table 1. Consumer Price Index

	May 2025	Apr 2025	M/M difference	May 2024	Y/Y difference
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index	0.08%	0.22%	-0.14pp	0.04%	0.04pp
Core Consumer Price Index	0.13%	0.24%	-0.11pp	0.14%	-0.01pp
Food Consumer Price Index	0.29%	-0.08%	0.37pp	0.14%	0.15pp
Energy Consumer Price Index	-0.98%	0.67%	-1.65pp	-1.34%	0.36pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index	2.35%	2.31%	0.04pp	3.27%	-0.92pp
Core Consumer Price Index	2.79%	2.78%	0.01pp	3.42%	-0.63pp
Food Consumer Price Index	2.88%	2.76%	0.12pp	2.13%	0.75pp
Energy Consumer Price Index	-3.46%	-3.74%	0.28pp	3.69%	-7.15pp

Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast

	Cleveland Fed forecast	Actual	Forecast error
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index	0.13%	0.08%	0.04pp
Core Consumer Price Index	0.23%	0.13%	0.10pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index	2.40%	2.35%	0.05pp
Core Consumer Price Index	2.84%	2.79%	0.06pp

Real earnings

From April 2025 to May 2025:

For all employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

• Real average weekly earnings increased by 0.33 percent.
• Real average hourly earnings increased by 0.27 percent.

For production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

• Real average weekly earnings increased by 0.31 percent.
• Real average hourly earnings increased by 0.30 percent.

Note: “Real” measures are those adjusted for inflation.

Note: Weekly earnings are a better estimate of income than hourly earnings because they take into account the amount of hours worked.

Table 3. Real Earnings Indicators

	May 2025	Apr 2025	M/M difference	May 2024	Y/Y difference
All employees
Real hourly earnings
Month-over-month	0.27%	0.00%	0.27pp	0.36%	-0.09pp
Year-over-year	1.44%	1.53%	-0.09pp	0.81%	0.63pp
Real weekly earnings
Month-over-month	0.33%	-0.03%	0.36pp	0.66%	-0.33pp
Year-over-year	1.46%	1.78%	-0.32pp	0.53%	0.93pp
Production and non-supervisory
Real hourly earnings
Month-over-month	0.30%	0.10%	0.20pp	0.31%	-0.01pp
Year-over-year	1.85%	1.85%	0.00pp	0.83%	1.02pp
Real weekly earnings
Month-over-month	0.31%	-0.18%	0.49pp	0.39%	-0.08pp
Year-over-year	1.81%	1.89%	-0.08pp	0.54%	1.27pp

Upcoming releases

Date	Time	Release	Data source
Jun 12	10:00 AM	Monthly Fiscal Update, May 2025	U.S. Treasury
Jun 24	10:00 AM	State Employment Update, May 2025	Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jun 26	08:30 AM	Monthly GDP Update, Q1 2025 Third Estimate	Bureau of Economic Analysis
Jun 27	08:30 AM	Monthly Expenditures Update, May 2025	Bureau of Economic Analysis
Jul 03	08:30 AM	Monthly Employment Update, June 2025	Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jul 03	08:30 AM	Monthly Trade Update, May 2025	Bureau of Economic Analysis
Jul 08	10:00 AM	Monthly Debt Update, July 2025	U.S. Treasury

Notes

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.