December 2025 | Released January 13, 2026

+2.68 percent
Consumer Price Index inflation
Dec 2024 to Dec 2025

+0.31 percent
Consumer Price Index inflation
Nov 2025 to Dec 2025

-0.27 percent
Change in real average weekly earnings
Nov 2025 to Dec 2025

Consumer Price Index

From November 2025 to December 2025:

• Headline CPI-U inflation was 0.31 percent.
  • Food price inflation was 0.71 percent.
  • Energy price inflation was 0.30 percent.
• Core CPI-U inflation was 0.24 percent.

From December 2024 to December 2025:

• Headline CPI-U inflation was 2.68 percent.
  • Food price inflation was 3.07 percent.
  • Energy price inflation was 2.30 percent.
• Core CPI-U inflation was 2.64 percent.

Note: Core CPI-U excludes food and energy.

Table 1. Consumer Price Index inflation

	Dec 2025	Nov 2025	Chg. from Nov 2025	Dec 2024	Chg. from Dec 2024
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index	0.31%			0.36%	-0.05pp
Core Consumer Price Index	0.24%			0.21%	0.03pp
Food Consumer Price Index	0.71%			0.29%	0.42pp
Energy Consumer Price Index	0.30%			2.42%	-2.12pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index	2.68%	2.74%	-0.06pp	2.89%	-0.21pp
Core Consumer Price Index	2.64%	2.63%	0.01pp	3.24%	-0.60pp
Food Consumer Price Index	3.07%	2.65%	0.42pp	2.51%	0.56pp
Energy Consumer Price Index	2.30%	4.24%	-1.94pp	-0.52%	2.82pp

Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve forecast

	Cleveland Fed forecast	Actual	Forecast error
Month-over-month inflation
Consumer Price Index	0.20%	0.31%	-0.10pp
Core Consumer Price Index	0.22%	0.24%	-0.02pp
Year-over-year inflation
Consumer Price Index	2.57%	2.68%	-0.10pp
Core Consumer Price Index	2.64%	2.64%	0.00pp

Real earnings

From November 2025 to December 2025:

For all employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

• Real average weekly earnings decreased by 0.27 percent.
• Real average hourly earnings remained unchanged with a net change of 0.00 percent.

For production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls:

• Real average weekly earnings decreased by 0.15 percent.
• Real average hourly earnings decreased by 0.20 percent.

Note: “Real” measures are those adjusted for inflation.

Note: Weekly earnings are a better estimate of income than hourly earnings because they take into account the amount of hours worked.

Table 3. Change in real earnings

	Dec 2025	Nov 2025	Chg. from Nov 2025	Dec 2024	Chg. from Dec 2024
Month-over-month change
All employees
Real weekly earnings	-0.27%			-0.46%	0.19pp
Real hourly earnings	0.00%			-0.18%	0.18pp
Production and non-supervisory
Real weekly earnings	-0.15%			0.20%	-0.35pp
Real hourly earnings	-0.20%			-0.10%	-0.10pp
Year-over-year change
All employees
Real weekly earnings	1.07%	0.89%	0.18pp	0.50%	0.57pp
Real hourly earnings	1.07%	0.89%	0.18pp	1.08%	-0.01pp
Production and non-supervisory
Real weekly earnings	0.98%	1.33%	-0.35pp	0.99%	-0.01pp
Real hourly earnings	0.91%	1.01%	-0.10pp	1.34%	-0.43pp

Upcoming releases

Date	Time	Release	Data source
Jan 14	10:00 AM	Monthly Fiscal Update, December 2025	U.S. Treasury
Jan 27	10:00 AM	State Employment Update, December 2025	Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jan 29	08:30 AM	Monthly Expenditures Update, December 2025	Bureau of Economic Analysis
Feb 05	08:30 AM	Monthly Trade Update, December 2025	Bureau of Economic Analysis
Feb 06	08:30 AM	Monthly Employment Update, January 2026	Bureau of Labor Statistics
Feb 06	10:00 AM	Monthly Debt Update, January 2026	U.S. Treasury
Feb 11	08:30 AM	Monthly Inflation Update, January 2026	Bureau of Labor Statistics
Feb 12	10:00 AM	Monthly Fiscal Update, January 2026	U.S. Treasury

Notes

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Labor Statistics, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.

Due to the lapse in appropriations, the BLS did not publish data for October 2025. As a result, the “month-over-month change” values for November 2025 show the change from September 2025 to November 2025.